Ramsey, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

007
FXUS63 KMPX 080811
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
311 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- General warming trend commences today and continues through
  the upcoming weekend.

- Isolated to scattered rain showers Wednesday into Thursday,
  then possibly some isolated rain showers for the upcoming
  weekend, but overall no significant precipitation accumulation
  the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

Surface analysis early this morning depicts a modified arctic
high pressure airmass, oriented north-south, centered over
eastern Manitoba province and extending southward into the mid-
Mississippi River Valley region. A weak frontal boundary sits
along the lee slopes of the Appalachians with a few weak low
pressure centers found along its length. Aloft, a highly-
amplified trough resides over the Appalachians while a ridge
sits from the Northern Plains into the Four Corners region.

Both the surface high pressure airmass and ridge aloft will
shift east through the day today. Despite the ridge flattening
out, the more pronounced southerly flow associated with both
features will allow modest warm air advection into the Upper
Midwest today. This will push highs to the mid 40s in central MN
and western WI to the lower 50s in southwest MN. Cloud cover
will increase tonight into tomorrow as a low pressure center
along the aforementioned stalled front near the Rockies becomes
a bit more organized, traversing east across the Central Plains
tonight through Wednesday. The increase in clouds plus southerly
flow will prevent temperatures from bottoming out much below
freezing tonight, if at all. Highs will continue to warm on
Wednesday, pushing into the mid 50s to mid 60s nearly area-
wide. However, as the Central Plains low plus a secondary
northern clipper-type low slide across the Upper Midwest back-
to-back Wednesday through Wednesday night, scattered
intermittent rain showers can be expected across the area. QPF
is still limited due to Pacific-origin moisture being fairly
stretched out as it moves from the west coast, across the
Rockies and to the Upper Midwest, and that the upper level flow
is more zonal with only weak upper level perturbations, thus
limiting support aloft. Less than 0.10" precipitation can be
expected for any given location throughout the Wednesday-to-
Thursday duration.

The pair of low pressure centers will merge as they move across
the Rockies and into the mid-Atlantic states, allowing our
region to dry out starting Thursday night and likely on through
the weekend as stronger upper level ridging develops for the
central CONUS. Temperatures will dip a bit behind the lows for
Thursday, with highs back to the upper 40s to mid 50s. However,
the building ridge will allow highs on Friday to rise about 10
degrees, ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s. This will be
followed by highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s both Saturday and
Sunday, well above normal going into mid-April. Blended model
guidance still tries to press out a few hundredths of QPF over
the weekend, but that still seems tough given the stout ridge
aloft, even with a weak frontal boundary progged to move across
the region over the weekend. Cannot entirely rule out precip so
have maintained the 20 PoPs that NBM inserts to the forecast.
Temperatures will then go on a bit of a cooling trend early next
week behind these synoptic features, but still running above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

VFR throughout the TAF period. SKC through much of the period
before a deck of mid to high clouds move late afternoon/evening.
Winds will be light and variable tonight and turn out of the
South-southeast after sunrise Tuesday morning. Speeds will be at
or below 10kts with a few sporadic gusts possible up to 18 to
20 kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15kts.
THU...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...BPH